Putin’s propensity for risk means any action short of war in the so-called “grey zone” is possible, as demonstrated by reports the Kremlin has been supporting a coup attempt in Moldova and aiding Serbian nationalists protesting against closer ties with Kosovo.
More broadly, that list could include blackmail, cyberattacks, sabotage and even assassinations on NATO territory, coupled to posturing and provocations by Russia’s armed forces.
Similar efforts will likely be made to try and sway Western populations. True, Russia’s previous attempts to enlist gullible and/or reflexively suspicious Western citizens with false narratives about NATO enlargement have only enjoyed limited success, mainly because it’s painfully obvious Russia is engaged in a war of imperial expansion.
But just like prohibition-era Baptists and bootleggers, it will continue trying to exert pressure by seeking to unite seemingly disparate groups, such as the anti-war campaigns which have brought together the anti-globalist Far Left with the conspiracy theory-laden Far Right.
NATO’S CENTRE OF GRAVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
The centre of NATO gravity will likely continue to shift further east. Both Poland and Estonia have emerged as strong champions of Ukrainian sovereignty, and have been particularly instrumental in pushing more reticent European nations, including Germany and France, towards a firmer stance.
NATO aspirant members Finland and Sweden have been busy too, with both nations increasing their 2022 defence expenditure by between 10 per cent and 20 per cent.
With the exception of Hungary, the Bucharest Nine Group – formed in 2015 in response to Russian aggression in Crimea – has emerged as a powerful voice within NATO, advocating for the transfer of more sophisticated weapons systems to Ukraine.
In January 2023, Poland announced it was increasing its military spending to 4 per cent of GDP, and it has been placing numerous orders for weapons, including from the US and South Korea.
Policy coordination between Warsaw and Washington has increased as well, especially on stationing NATO systems, personnel, and providing training for Ukrainian forces – including US President Joe Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday (Feb 20) to announce a new military aid package, ahead of a visit to Poland to mark the anniversary of Russia’s invasion.
