The war was also the latest in a series of setbacks over the last year for Khamenei.
These include the downgrading of pro-Tehran militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah in conflicts with Israel and the fall of Iran’s ally in Syria Bashar al-Assad, against the background of economic crisis and energy shortages at home.
“At this time, the regime does not seem to be on the verge of falling but it is certainly more vulnerable than it has been since the early years after the revolution,” said Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa.
“DIMINISHED FIGURE”
“The authority of the supreme leader has therefore certainly been undermined,” Juneau told AFP.
“Even though his position remains secure, in that there is unlikely to be a direct challenge to his rule for now, he has lost credibility and bears direct responsibility for the Islamic Republic’s major losses.”
Khamenei is 86 and suffers the effects of a 1981 assassination attempt in Tehran, which paralysed his right arm, a disability he has never made any attempt to hide.
But discussion of succession has remained taboo in Iran, even if Western analysts have long eyed his son Mojtaba as a possible – but far from inevitable – contender.
Arash Azizi, visiting fellow at Boston University, said Khamenei looked “frail and weak” in his televised message in “a far cry from the grand orator we know”.
“It’s clear that he is a diminished figure, no longer authoritative and a shadow of his former self,” he said.
“Power in Tehran is already passing to different institutions and factions and the battle for his succession will only intensify in the coming period.”
Khamenei has come through crises before, using the state’s levers of repression, most recently during the 2022 to 2023 protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, an Iranian Kurd detained for allegedly breaching Iran’s strict dress code for women.
Rights activists say hundreds of people have been arrested in a new crackdown in the wake of the conflict.
