What’s next?
Dr Ozcelik noted that although recognising a Palestinian statehood will not change much on the ground in Gaza, the “glimmer of hope” is still important.
“That will matter for those on the ground, but there will be questions – if this act of declaration of recognition is being supported now by the UK, by France, what next? How will our circumstances improve? And I don’t think that there is an answer to that,” he said.
“The only answer will come with meaningful progress on the wider context of a two-state solution.”
Without the US coming on board with the idea of a Palestinian state, “very little” will change on the ground, Dr Ozcelik added.
Kupchan similarly noted the need for a two-state solution for the conflict to come to an end.
“There is no alternative to a two-state solution, because there is no one state solution … a Jewish state is not willingly going to hand over power to those that they see as an enemy, at least for now,” he explained.
“If this conflict is going to end, ultimately, there needs to be Palestinian self-determination, whether this is a full-on state – as we think about most states – or a state that has limited powers, because Israel retains a certain measure of control over security, over borders, so that remains to be seen,” he said.
“But I do think in the end of the day, in part, for Israel’s survival as a secure democracy, in the end, there has to be a state for the Palestinians that live there.”
How have the US and Israel reacted?
The United States, a staunch ally of Israel, criticised the moves as “performative” and said it was focused on finding a diplomatic solution to the Israel-Hamas conflict.
“Our priorities are clear: the release of the hostages, the security of Israel, and peace and prosperity for the entire region that is only possible free from Hamas,” a State Department spokesperson said on condition of anonymity.
Netanyahu also condemned the moves, vowing that a Palestinian state would not be established.
“I have a clear message to those leaders who recognise a Palestinian state after the horrific massacre of Oct 7: You are giving a huge reward to terrorism,” he said, referring to Palestinian militant group Hamas’ 2023 attack on Israel that triggered the nearly two-year war in Gaza.
“And I have another message for you: It will not happen. A Palestinian state will not be established west of the Jordan River.”
Netanyahu also vowed to expand Jewish settlements in the West Bank, which Israel has controlled since 1967 in an occupation considered illegal under international law.
