CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES
Last month, India’s Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar raised water security as an issue with China on a visit to reset relations between the neighbours. It is not known what private assurances Beijing provided but its official statement omitted any reference to the issue.
There is no formal water-sharing agreement between the two, and the current political climate makes it difficult to negotiate one. But China can take small confidence-building measures. This includes resuming the sharing of real-time hydrological data from the Himalayas to India, just as it provides the data to Bangladesh. The data are not a political tool; they help plan to manage water flows and mitigate natural disasters.
Such a move can provide the impetus for greater cooperation, even an eventual formal regional agreement which can allow countries to coordinate policies on water security and ecological challenges such as floods and droughts. China has done just that in Southeast Asia via the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation mechanism.
While China and India are at least on talking terms, relations between India and Pakistan are completely broken. Since the Kashmir attack and the subsequent four-day conflict, each country is on a diplomatic offensive to tilt international opinion.
If any realistic confidence-building measures are to be considered, the Indus Waters Treaty is the perfect starting point. The treaty has stood the test of time, but a long-delayed review is now due. By restoring the treaty and both sides agreeing to update it, South Asia will be a lot safer – both from climate change and politics.
Hasan Jafri is a Singaporean analyst who advises clients on political and policy risk.
