So far, Ukraine and its European allies have strongly condemned Russian actions as a deliberate escalation. Poland has invoked NATO Article 4 to formally open consultations among the allies when any of them is threatened.
PART OF RUSSIA’S PLAN?
This latest transgression looks more like an actual act of aggression and a concerted test of Western responses.
Consider the timing: Russia’s latest provocation comes just after last week’s high-profile meetings in China. First, the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which provided an ideal platform for Russian President Vladimir Putin to demonstrate to Ukraine and the West that he retains the strong support of two key partners – China and India.
Mr Putin then stayed on for bilateral meetings with senior Chinese officials, including his counterpart Xi Jinping. Among other things, these resulted, after many years of protracted negotiations, in the conclusion of an agreement to build the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline which, if completed and reaching full capacity, will provide a long-term perspective for Russian hydrocarbon exports to China.
Finally, during the military parade celebrating China’s defeat of Japan in World War II, the closer relationship between Russia, China and North Korea was on full display.
All of this is likely to have been interpreted in the Kremlin as a significant strengthening of the Russian position in general and in relation to its war against Ukraine. Its key partners are unlikely to make an outright condemnation of Russia’s reckless escalatory actions, and even less likely to put any pressure on Mr Putin to bring this war to an end.
