Finally, Thailand’s export-dependent economy is also bracing for the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs come Jul 9, when the current window for bilateral trade negotiations expires. Without a deal, Thailand is set to face a staggering 36 per cent tariff rate for exports to the US.
Although Thailand’s Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira will kick off formal negotiations with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington DC on Jul 3, Thailand was not on a priority list of countries for US talks reported by the Wall Street Journal in April. Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and even Cambodia are reportedly on that list, though it is not clear on what basis they were prioritised.
Thailand therefore risks failing to pin down a favourable deal by Jul 9.
While US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that talks could be extended for certain countries, it remains to be seen if the US is sufficiently convinced that Thailand is “negotiating in good faith” through its pledges to address outstanding concerns, such as the transshipment of Chinese goods and non-tariff barriers to trade.
If Mr Pichai is successful in his endeavour, then the 10 per cent baseline could hold until a deal is struck. If not, and if the US thinks Thailand needs less of a push and more of a shove to prove its sincerity, the higher tariff rate could be used as leverage against Thailand to force more concessions.
