NEW YORK :The dollar hit a three-and-a-half-year low against the euro and sterling on Thursday in a broad selloff as traders priced in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut rates more than previously expected.
“This week it’s definitely been about the Fed, the prospect of easing sooner and potentially more rate cuts,” said Eric Theoret, FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell was interpreted as being more dovish this week in testimony to U.S. Congress, saying that, if it were not for expectations for higher inflation as a result of the Trump administration’s tariffs, the U.S. central bank would have likely continued to cut interest rates.
He nonetheless maintained that the Fed should stand pat as it anticipates an increase in price pressures this summer.
U.S. President Donald Trump will nominate a new Fed Chair next year who is expected to be more dovish than Powell, whose term will end in May.
Trump on Wednesday called Powell “terrible” and said he has three or four people in mind as contenders for the top Fed job. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Trump has toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Powell’s replacement by September or October.
Analysts say that person could operate as a shadow Fed chair, undermining Powell’s influence.
“From a market perspective, of course, not only does that undermine the Fed’s credibility and independence, clearly, (but) it’s a risk to the outlook for U.S. rates as well,” said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe.
Fed policymakers Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have also both said in the past week that the Fed should cut rates soon, as inflation continues to ease and due to rising concerns about a weakening labor market.
Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week, though continuing claims rose to the highest level since November 2021.
RATE CUT BETS
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 65 basis points of cuts by year-end, up from 46 basis points on Friday, with the first cut expected in September.
The euro was last up 0.39 per cent at $1.1705 and reached $1.1744, the highest since September 2021. Sterling rose 0.45 per cent at $1.3728 and got as high as $1.3764, its highest since October 2021.
The Swiss franc hit a 10-1/2-year high at 0.80 per dollar.
The dollar fell 0.61 per cent to 144.38 Japanese yen.
Falling interest rates would reduce the interest rate advantage of the dollar versus peers. It also comes as investors worry that tariffs will slow U.S. growth.
The Trump administration has set a July 9 deadline to negotiate deals that avoid reciprocal tariffs with trading partners.
The dollar is also under pressure as international investors reallocate away from U.S. assets on concerns about the outlook for the economy and the U.S. currency.
“The result of U.S. asset outperformance over the past decade is you’ve got a lot of asset managers that are long the U.S. dollar way more than I think they’re comfortable,” said Theoret.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.65 per cent to $107,144.
