NO INTEREST IN ESCALATION
First, Iran has no interest in further escalation.
This was already apparent in Iran’s strike on Israel, which was carried out in a way that provided ample early warning to Israel and its allies. This allowed them to effectively neuter the attack by taking down all but a few of the 300 projectiles launched.
Iran’s reasoning behind this is likely complex. The regime in Tehran want to avoid a direct confrontation with a regional rival that has superior military capabilities – including nuclear weapons – and is backed by some of the world’s most powerful militaries. But Iran’s own allies, Russia and China in particular, will also likely have communicated their disinterest in a full-scale escalation.
Anything that distracts from the war in Gaza and eases pressure on Israel on that front, including from its Western allies, cannot be in Iran’s interest either.
The growing isolation of Mr Netanyahu’s government is surely more advantageous to Tehran: It drives a welcome wedge between Israel and the West, and it limits the prospects of rapprochement between Israel and the Arab states. Saudi Arabia remains Iran’s other major regional rival despite last year’s China-brokered deal to normalise ties between Tehran and Riyadh.
