SYDNEY :Wall Street and European share futures pulled Asian indices lower on Monday as the latest salvo of threats in the U.S. tariff wars kept investors on edge, though there were still hopes it was mainly bluster by President Donald Trump.
Trump on Saturday said he would impose a 30 per cent tariff on most imports from the EU and Mexico from August 1, even as they are locked in long negotiations.
The European Union said it would extend a suspension of countermeasures to U.S. tariffs until early August and continue to press for a negotiated settlement, though Germany’s finance minister called for firm action if the levies went ahead.
Investors have become largely inured to Trump’s chaotic policy methods and stocks eased only moderately, while the dollar gained little on the euro.
“It is hard to say whether the muted market response is best characterised by resilience or complacency,” said Taylor Nugent, a senior markets economist at NAB.
“But it is difficult to price the array of headlines purportedly defining where tariffs will sit from August when negotiations are ongoing.”
For now, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat, while Japan’s Nikkei eased 0.3 per cent.
Chinese blue chips firmed 0.3 per cent as data showed annual export growth topped forecasts at 5.8 per cent in June, even as exports to the U.S. fell almost 10 per cent. Figures on retail sales, industrial output and gross domestic product are out on Tuesday.
European shares took the tariff threat more seriously with EUROSTOXX 50 futures down 0.6 per cent, while DAX futures lost 0.7 per cent and FTSE futures 0.1 per cent.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.4 per cent. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major banks leading the pack on Tuesday.
S&P companies are expected to have increased profits by 5.8 per cent from the year-earlier period, down from an expectation of a 10.2 per cent gain on April 1, according to LSEG IBES.
Analysts at BofA noted the bar was low for earnings with consensus seeing a slowdown to 4 per cent growth, from the previous quarter’s 13 per cent.
“We expect a modest beat of 2 per cent, below the 3 per cent average and last quarter’s 6 per cent figure, though medium-term, we are more constructive,” they wrote in a note.
PRESSURING POWELL
In bond markets, Treasuries got a very marginal safety bid and 10-year yields held at 4.41 per cent. Futures for the Federal Reserve funds rate edged higher as markets priced in a little more policy easing for next year.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signalled a patient outlook on cuts, Trump is piling up political pressure for more aggressive stimulus.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett over the weekend warned Trump might have grounds to fire Powell because of renovation cost overruns at the Fed’s Washington headquarters.
Trump said on Sunday that it would be a great thing if Powell stepped down.
Figures on U.S. consumer prices for June are due on Tuesday and could finally start to show early upward pressure from tariffs, though retailers still have pre-levy inventory to draw on and some companies are absorbing the costs into margins.
The impact on supply chain costs could show in producer price and import price figures this week, while a reading on retail sales will indicate how consumers are faring.
Among currencies, the euro dipped 0.1 per cent on the tariff news to $1.1685, edging away from its recent four-year top of $1.1830. The dollar lost 0.2 per cent on the yen to 147.15 and was barely moved on its currency index at 97.882.
The dollar did gain 0.2 per cent on the Mexican peso to 18.6710, with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confident a trade deal could be reached before the August deadline.
In commodity markets, gold picked up a modest safe-haven bid and rose 0.1 per cent to $3,359 an ounce.
Oil prices held steady on speculation Trump could announce stiffer sanctions on Russia later on Monday, including levies on major customers buying Russian oil.
Brent edged up 0.2 per cent to $70.47 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 0.1 per cent to $0.68.55 per barrel.
